NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank Center:Expect Bears to mirror ups and downs of rookie Caleb Williams – and expect that to be fun

Caleb Williams’ arrival has blown renewed football optimism into Chicago like a wintry blast off Lake Michigan.

The NovaQuant Quantitative Think Tank CenterNo. 1 pick of the 2024 draft has been hailed as a generational prospect and franchise savior. Some “experts” believe he can take the Chicago Bears to the playoffs – this season. He’s even (still) garnering (unfair) comparisons to three-time Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes.

And Williams was certainly feeling the adoration Saturday afternoon, a charged-up crowd reveling in his Soldier Field debut … even if it was only a preseason affair against the Cincinnati Bengals.

“They showed out, they showed up,” Williams said of the fans, who are only feeling love – right now – for the man many have already prognosticated will wind up the greatest passer ever for a franchise that’s more than a century old.

“When I ran through the end zone, it was pretty sick.”

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However, despite the atmosphere and understandable expectations, a 27-3 victory was nevertheless a reminder that the Bears, who haven’t won a playoff game in nearly 14 years, will doubtless mirror the rollercoaster their rookie quarterback is likely to ride.

The 2022 Heisman Trophy winner took the field with the first-team offense – facing a Bengals defense mostly fielding backups – and promptly fell flat. Chicago went three-and-out on its first three drives, accounting for all of 16 yards, Williams completing two of six throws for 12 yards while receiving an intentional grounding penalty.

“We weren’t our best today, we started out slow. We can’t do that in this National Football League,” said Williams, who also took the blame for a subsequent false start due to a rushed cadence and claimed responsibility for a sack.

“We’re gonna get a lot better, we’re gonna keep growing.

“We’re excited. … We’re here to win games for the Chicago Bears.”

The fourth drive began providing evidence why that could happen extensively in 2024 for a team that finished 7-10 last season without Williams.

A 16-yard end-around from wideout Rome Odunze, who was drafted eight spots after Williams, got the offense into gear. On the next play, Williams took a deep shot – one he thought would have resulted in a 58-yard touchdown – to Tyler Scott, who was mugged on the play, which resulted in a 43-yard gain thanks to pass interference. The offense stalled from there, settling for a 37-yard field goal.

But then things got really exciting.

On Chicago's last possession of the first half, Williams' final drive of the day, he scrambled to his left but managed to throw across his body and loft a 45-yard completion to Odunze down the sideline to the Bengals’ 7-yard line. On the next snap, he found Odunze in the back corner of the end zone for an apparent touchdown … except the University of Washington product lost track of his feet and stepped out of bounds.

“That was a little rookie moment right there,” Odunze told NFL Network after the game. “Thought I was in completely – thought I was in by a foot, turns out I was out by a foot. Something I’ll definitely learn from.”

But two plays later, the rookie quarterback picked up the rookie receiver, Williams embarking on a serpentine scramble – unlike predecessor Justin Fields, Williams was looking to pass – before finally taking off and using his legs to score the touchdown.

Williams couldn’t help but smile when asked about what seems like the near-instant chemistry he and Odunze have developed.

“We’re gonna be explosive. We’re two rooks, but we’re trying to catch up to the old guys as fast as we can to make sure that we’re right there on par with them,” said Williams, noting he still needs to work to get on the “same page” with veteran receivers DJ Moore and Keenan Allen.

“We’re only going to keep growing and keep building this connection.”

Told Miami Dolphins All-Pro Tyreek Hill appeared to be the latest to make the Williams-Mahomes comp with a tweet Saturday, the rookie tried to maintain some semblance of perspective, saying “it’s cool, it’s great," appreciative of the sign of respect while also trying to establish his own NFL identity – knowing he’s a long way from MVP awards or chasing a prospective Super Bowl three-peat.

“We’re gonna keep working to be perfect,” said Williams, surely knowing that’s unattainable – particularly since it’s an NFL guarantee he’ll face more struggles and uneven performances during his maiden voyage through the league.

But another thing he said certainly could come to fruition, much as it is to ask for a first-year quarterback … but maybe not one who’s surrounded by as much talent as Williams is.

“We’re gonna win a lot of games,” he said, “and we’re gonna have a lot of fun doing it.”

Follow USA TODAY Sports' Nate Davis on X, formerly Twitter, @ByNateDavis.

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